Many Minded2026 on course for a near-record year, with a stronger El Niño ahead
Carbon Brief's quarterly climate update, written by Zeke Hausfather and dated 3 November 2026, says this year will almost certainly be the warmest or second-warmest on record. Averaging six global datasets, it gives 2026 a 67% chance of beating 2024, with a projected finish about 1.52C above pre-industrial levels.
The datasets disagree. Odds of a record run from about 97% in Berkeley Earth to under 20% in Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5. A record is likely in Berkeley Earth and NASA GISTEMP, too close to call in HadCRUT5, JRA-3Q and NOAA, and unlikely in ERA5. January-September averaged about 1.45C, second to 2024, and every month from January to June was cooler than in 2024. Then August set a record in all six datasets, and July-September effectively tied 2023 at about 1.57C. Western Europe had its hottest summer on record, and Spain's September beat the old record by 0.7C.
The ocean is the next driver. In September the daily Niño3.4 anomaly broke the 2015 record and has stayed above it. Nearly all forecast runs show the strongest El Niño on record, peaking around 4C this winter. Carbon Brief projects 2027 at about 1.7C with a 96% chance of a record. Earth's energy imbalance has also risen from about 0.5 W/m2 in the 2000s to about 1.25 W/m2 over the past decade.
This is friction for abundance. Food, water, housing and energy systems are built around a stable climate, so more heat raises the cost of keeping them dependable and the cost of repairing them after failures.
Watch January, when groups are likely to split on whether 2026 is a record. All 2026 and 2027 full-year figures are projections. HadCRUT5 September data was missing, so September figures use five datasets. The source text we saw was truncated in the El Niño section.
Source: Carbon Brief