A model finds batteries undercut subsidized hydrogen on short Norwegian cargo routes

An opinion analysis models two coastal bulk routes and finds battery-electric ships far cheaper than hydrogen ones, though on hypothetical routes only.

Norwegian shipping firm GMI Group is going ahead with four hydrogen-electric bulk carriers for coastal freight. In October 2026 PowerCell confirmed a follow-up order that brings the program to 24 marine fuel-cell units totaling 5.4 MW. The first two ships, 4,000 deadweight tonnes each, are planned for 2027, and two 3,000-tonne vessels are expected in 2029. GMI says its design, which combines fuel cells, batteries, an efficient hull and wind assistance, gives lifetime costs 9–10% below conventional ships.

Author Michael Barnard tested that kind of case with a model of two hypothetical 3,000-tonne coastal services, of 80 and 55 nautical miles, over fifteen years. He assumed comparable hulls and operating needs. Hydrogen propulsion came out 50–58% more expensive than diesel, even with about €13.1 million in upfront public vessel support. Battery-electric options were €11.64–14.13 million cheaper than the subsidized hydrogen ships. In the 80-nautical-mile case, battery-electric cost €29.55 million over fifteen years, against €43.68 million for hydrogen after the assumed grant. In central cases batteries still cost somewhat more than diesel, but the gap was far smaller.

This matters because short-sea freight is a natural place for cheap electricity to displace fuel. If batteries do the job at lower cost, public money buys more decarbonized transport per euro. Norsk Hydrogenforum reports Enova awards of roughly €42.9 million for the four vessels, with more support going to GreenH hydrogen production projects. The author argues Norway should require credible battery-electric bids before making further commitments to compressed-hydrogen coastal freight.

The caveats are large. These are scenario outputs for hypothetical routes, not GMI's actual routes or contracts, and GMI has not published the data needed for a direct comparison. Vessel purchase prices are a key uncertainty. Battery ships need grid connections, charging equipment and berth time that some ports may lack, and hydrogen may win on longer voyages or where grids are limited. Announced grants are not always fully paid. This is an opinion piece, and the detailed analysis sits behind a paywall.

Source: CleanTechnica