A month without the solar tax credit, and nobody can measure it yet

The 30% residential credit ended July 4. Analysts project an 18 to 21% market decline; the measured number is that 45% of new installs now include a battery.

July 4 was the last day to safe-harbour a residential solar project under the 30% federal tax credit, which Congress eliminated along with the $7,500 EV credit. A month on, Electrek's assessment is that the industry has not collapsed. SEIA and Wood Mackenzie project an 18 to 21% decline in the residential market in the months following.

The distinction worth holding is that the projection is a forecast and the resilience claim is, at this point, a vibe. One month after a subsidy ends, nobody has installation data that covers the period — which is precisely why we grade this item speculative and weight it low despite the size of the underlying question.

The measured number in the piece is a different one, and it is more interesting. Battery attachment reached 45% of new solar installations in the first quarter of 2026, up from 38% a year earlier and around 6% in 2020. That is a genuine structural change, and it predates the credit's expiry. A solar installation with storage attached is worth more to a household than one without, because it converts a daytime generation asset into an evening supply asset — which is exactly the arithmetic that makes a system pencil when the subsidy is gone.

What to watch is the first quarter of real post-credit installation data, and whether attach rates keep climbing. If storage economics can carry residential solar without a 30% credit, that is a more durable result than the credit ever was.

Source: Electrek