MANY MINDEDBNEF Sharply Raises US Data Center Power Forecast to 207 GW by 2033
BloombergNEF has sharply raised its forecast for US data center electricity demand. Its base case now projects 118 GW in 2030 and 194 GW by 2035 — upward revisions of 52% and 83% from its December numbers. A second model, built on expected AI chip deliveries, puts demand at 207 GW by 2033.
The scale is hard to overstate. US data center demand in 2025 was almost 50 GW and is on pace to more than double within five years. Installed capacity topped 47 GW at the end of 2025, 16% above BNEF's own forecast. The firm added about 100 GW of project capacity to its tracking over the past year, including more than 70 projects of 1 GW or larger, some as big as 10 GW. The gap between BNEF's scenarios reaches 63 GW by 2033 — more than four times New York City's peak load.
This is filed as friction because demand of this size strains grids faster than clean generation can be built. Bank of America has suggested the US may need more than 230 GW of new capacity over five years, while regulated utilities are expected to add only about 93 GW. That shortfall is what keeps aging fossil plants online and pushes energy prices up rather than down.
These are forecasts with acknowledged high uncertainty, and BNEF admits it underestimated 2025 buildout. Watch whether generation and grid interconnection keep pace, or whether the gap forces reliance on the dirtiest available supply.
Source: Utility Dive