MANY MINDEDBofA sees a 100 GW gap between AI power demand and what utilities will build
Bank of America analysts estimate the US will need more than 230 GW of new generating capacity in the next five years, a large share of it to run data centers. In a July 17, 2026 note, they project regulated utilities will add only about 93 GW of accredited supply, leaving a gap of more than 100 GW between what is needed and what is planned. Data centers alone could pile on roughly 125 GW of load.
The pressure is already reshaping how power gets built. Large gas turbines are largely sold out through 2030, so developers are turning to faster-to-install natural-gas reciprocating engines from makers like Caterpillar, INNIO, Rolls-Royce, and Wartsila. Utilities in Maryland, Wisconsin, Indiana, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, and Mississippi are delaying or canceling coal-plant retirements to keep dispatchable capacity online. More than 7.5 GW of data centers with on-site generation are under construction, with over 60 GW more in pre-construction.
The abundance concern is who covers the shortfall. BofA puts US electricity demand growth at a 4.1% annual rate through 2030, and warns that wind and solar count for less firm capacity at peak than their nameplate suggests, so the gap falls to dispatchable resources that take years to stand up; the note cites the Champlain Hudson Power Express, 16 years from planning to energization. When supply trails demand, prices rise, and the cited research finds a 10% real price increase trims consumption only 1% to 2%, meaning households cannot easily dodge the bill.
This is a forecast, not a fact. The numbers lean on BofA's own semiconductor analysts' assumptions about how fast AI infrastructure gets built; the analysts warn planned additions may overstate real supply; and utilities have revised these demand forecasts upward three years running, a measure of how uncertain the target is.
Source: Utility Dive