Brazil's Amazon Protection Under Lula

Brazil's government preserved at least 20,000 km² of Amazon rainforest since Lula took office in 2022, slowing deforestation from 11,594 km² in 2022 to 2,874 km² in early 2026.

Brazil's government preserved at least 20,000 km² of Amazon rainforest since Lula took office in 2022, according to Carbon Brief analysis. This represents the area equivalent to the U.S. state of New Jersey. The preservation estimate compares forest code enforcement under Lula to a 'no enforcement' scenario reflecting Bolsonaro-era governance, using the GLOBIOM-Brazil model from Oxford, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE). Deforestation rates dropped from 11,594 km² in 2022 to 5,731 km² in 2025, with preliminary 2026 data showing 2,874 km².

The analysis is conservative—it estimates deforestation avoided under Lula as the minimum possible under current enforcement. It does not account for illegal deforestation that may occur despite reduced rates, nor does it assume perfect implementation of forest code rules, which has been described as 'gradual and imperfect.' The 2026 figure remains preliminary and could exceed final government records.

This preservation directly supports climate stability and biodiversity—critical for global food security and disaster resilience. By preventing catastrophic climate feedback loops, it reduces risks to water systems, agricultural yields, and human health that affect millions. The scale of forest protection under Lula represents a tangible shift toward securing the climate systems that underpin sustainable living.

What to watch: The pace of illegal deforestation and whether enforcement improves enough to maintain the 2026 deforestation rate. If implementation remains gradual, the long-term impact on Amazon resilience may be limited despite current progress.

Source: Carbon Brief