China's solar installs fall about 66% in first half of 2026

New solar installations in China dropped roughly 66% year on year in H1 2026, heading toward the first annual decline since 2019.

The China Photovoltaic Industry Association said the country's solar industry entered a broad contraction in the first half of 2026. New installations reached 72.07 GW, down about 66% from 212.21 GW a year earlier. Production fell across the chain: polysilicon down 9.8%, wafers down 7.3%, cells down 21.9%, and modules down 35.1%. Prices for polysilicon, wafers, and cells all fell sharply from January levels.

CPIA still forecasts 180 to 240 GW of new capacity for the full year, against about 315 GW in 2025, which would mark China's first annual installation decline since 2019. Exports of wafers, cells, and modules actually rose 24.3% to $17.18 billion. Globally, CPIA expects PV additions to fall 8% to 612 GW in 2026 before growing to 864 GW by 2030.

As friction for the abundance story, a slowdown in the world's largest solar market means less new clean generation coming online this year, which slows the descent of electricity costs. But the picture is complicated: the falling prices reflect oversupply, and cheaper panels ultimately help deployment elsewhere.

The honest caveats are large. The H1 2025 comparison was inflated by a rush to connect projects before market-based pricing arrived in June 2025, so the drop overstates the underlying trend. The figures are CPIA's own estimates, and former secretary-general Wang Bohua framed the decline as a return to sustainable growth rather than a reversal.

Source: pv magazine