Many MindedChinese green-tech shipments set to offset a Brazil's worth of CO2 this year
Lauri Myllyvirta of CREA and the Asia Society Policy Institute, writing in Carbon Brief, estimates that China's 2026 exports of solar, batteries, EVs and similar technology will avoid about 450 MtCO2. That is nearly 2% of emissions outside China and roughly Brazil's annual fossil CO2 output. The avoided-emissions impact grew 26% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2026, after 36% growth in 2025. Export growth over that period: electric cars and heavy vehicles 61%, wind turbines 45%, batteries 39%, solar 22%, electric two-wheelers 21%.
Over their lifetimes, 2026 exports are projected to avoid 8,400 MtCO2, up from 6,800 for 2025 exports and 5,000 for 2024 exports. Wind and solar exports should generate about 800 TWh a year, comparable to around 100 coal plants. In 2025, making the exported equipment emitted about 170 MtCO2 in China while avoiding 370 MtCO2 elsewhere, a payback of about six months. The analysis also finds most exports built new or expanded markets, letting other producers keep their sales volumes.
For abundance, the point is who benefits. About 76% of lifetime avoided emissions fall in the global south, including 52% in south and south-east Asia, even though most export value goes to the global north. Cheap panels, batteries and vehicles reaching importing countries lower the cost of electricity and transport where it matters most.
Caveats: fourth-quarter 2026 figures are projected from the first three quarters. Assumed lifetimes are 20 years for solar and wind, 10 for cars and batteries, and 5 for two-wheelers. The effect of e-bikes is a key uncertainty, assuming about half their travel displaces motor vehicle use. The article also warns a continued domestic solar slowdown in China could worsen trade tensions. Our source text was truncated, so later sections are not covered.
Source: Carbon Brief