MANY MINDEDEuropean Cereal Shortfalls Projected for 2026 Amid Drought and Heat
The European Commission projects cereal production declines across 26 EU countries (excluding Malta) for 2026 compared to 2025. France’s output is expected to fall by 8 megatonnes, Germany by 4 megatonnes. These projections stem from summer heat and drought impacts documented in Carbon Brief’s analysis.
The decline specifically targets cereal crops—a staple food for millions across Europe. The European Commission’s data shows this is a forward-looking projection for next year, not current conditions. The drought and heat events have already strained agricultural systems, with these declines representing a potential worsening of food supply chains.
This reduces food availability in Europe, directly exacerbating food insecurity. For regions already vulnerable to hunger, reduced cereal production could raise prices and limit access, making food less available for those who need it most. The friction here is that without intervention, scarcity could deepen inequalities.
Next steps include monitoring the European Commission’s updates. Caveats: the projections are for 2026, so current impacts may not yet be fully realized. Malta’s exclusion due to data gaps means the full scope of the crisis isn’t captured. The source’s six charts likely show regional variations but the fact sheet only provides aggregate figures.
Source: Carbon Brief