Indonesia's 2026 fire emissions project climate risks

Indonesia's 2026 fire emissions are projected at 76 million tonnes of carbon (MtC) as of 7 September 2026, comparable to the 333 MtC burned in 2015. This occurs during an El Niño event beginning June

Indonesia's 2026 fire emissions are projected at 76 million tonnes of carbon (MtC) as of 7 September 2026, comparable to the 333 MtC burned in 2015. This occurs during an El Niño event beginning June 2026, with Papua province experiencing unprecedented fire intensity. Peatland fires in Indonesia can smolder underground, generating higher emissions than typical dryland fires. Recent restoration efforts may not sufficiently reduce 2026 fire intensity, and emissions could exceed 2015 levels if the El Niño persists. This poses climate risks through elevated emissions, but the source does not explicitly link to food or water security threats. The 2026 fire trajectory remains uncertain due to unresolved peatland conservation effectiveness and El Niño duration.

Source: Carbon Brief