Land-Use Emissions Decline 32% Since 2000s, Preserving Food and Water Systems

Land-use emissions decreased by approximately 32% compared to their 2000s average, driven by reduced deforestation and increased forest regrowth.

Land-use emissions decreased by approximately 32% compared to their average in the 2000s, with 2015-2024 averaging 5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) versus 6.6 GtCO2 during 1995-2014. The 2025 estimate of 4.1 GtCO2 reflects this trend, attributed to reduced permanent deforestation and increased forest regrowth—specifically 2.2 GtCO2 from afforestation/reforestation and 2.56 GtCO2 from shifting cultivation cycles.

This decline occurs as forests actively sequester carbon while maintaining soil health and water cycles. Reduced deforestation emissions over 2015-2024 (6.96 GtCO2) were offset by forest growth removing 4.76 GtCO2 annually, preserving land capacity for agriculture and clean water.

For food and water security, this trend directly reduces climate-driven resource stress. Stable forest cover minimizes soil erosion and maintains watershed function, allowing more reliable crop yields without new land clearing. The shift toward regrowth cycles also supports community-led land management without fossil fuel-intensive interventions.

The 2025 figures are preliminary and model-based, with the Global Carbon Budget report’s interpretation of the 32% decline requiring validation in upcoming updates. Sustained regrowth could further protect food systems without expanding deforestation—though peat fire emissions in 2015 temporarily disrupted the trend. Next steps include tracking whether forest regrowth continues to offset deforestation at scale.

Source: Carbon Brief