MANY MINDEDLEO payload costs projected to drop 70% by 2040
A Cambridge University-led analysis of 4,400 rocket launches from 1960 to 2025 projects the cost of sending one kilogram of payload to low Earth orbit will drop from $3,868 in 2025 to $273 by 2040. This represents a 70% reduction in cost over the next 15 years, with intermediate targets of $1,569 by 2030. The research establishes a clear trajectory for declining space access costs based on historical launch data.
The projection’s significance lies in its potential to enable large-scale, affordable satellite networks. Cheaper orbital delivery could make global disaster response systems and resource-sharing platforms more feasible—addressing needs in connectivity, emergency aid, and environmental monitoring where space-based infrastructure currently faces cost barriers.
This development moves abundance toward the Commons by potentially lowering the financial threshold for space-based solutions that serve global needs. However, the source lists a publication date of August 24, 2026—a future date that may indicate an error in the report. The current trajectory remains untested at scale and depends on continued technological progress in launch systems.
Source: HumanProgress