Malaria hotspots shifting toward East/South Africa

Climate change is moving childhood malaria transmission toward East and South Africa, increasing risk for resource-limited populations.

A Nature study reported July 29, 2026, analyzes how climate change has shifted childhood malaria transmission patterns in sub-Saharan Africa. Using century-long blood sample data and climate models, the research shows transmission has moved from West and Central Africa toward East and South Africa since 1901. Between 1901 and 2014, climate change caused a net 0.5 percent increase in childhood malaria cases across sub-Saharan Africa (1 excess case per 1,000 children), with Ethiopian highlands showing an 8-case increase per 1,000 children. West Africa experienced 1-2 percent lower transmission (4 fewer cases per 1,000 children). Under a 2.7°C global warming scenario, transmission could decrease by 2 percent over the next 85 years. However, current malaria control efforts currently outweigh climate-induced changes in impact, and projected shifts depend on specific warming scenarios. This shift threatens increased mortality and healthcare strain for resource-limited populations as hotspots move toward regions with fewer health resources.

Source: Science News