Mexico's Homicide Rate Drops 53% Under Sheinbaum

Mexico's daily willful homicide rate fell 53% during President Sheinbaum's first 23 months in office, reaching its lowest monthly average since 2015.

Mexico’s average daily willful homicides decreased by 53% from 86.9 cases in September 2024 to 40.8 cases in August 2026 during the first 23 months of President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo’s government. This reduction, reported by the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System on September 8, 2026, covers data from 32 state prosecutors' offices through August 31, 2026. August 2026 marked the lowest daily homicide average for that month since 2015 (54 cases per day), continuing a downward trend from a peak of 96.5 cases per day in August 2020. The historical series shows consistent declines: 91.1 in 2021, 84.4 in 2022, 80.8 in 2023, 79.7 in 2024, and 60.1 in 2025.

This reduction reflects systemic progress in public security coordination across Mexico’s states. The government’s direct reporting through prosecutors’ offices provides a clear metric of community safety improvements. For human capital and economic participation—key drivers of long-term abundance—safer communities enable more stable labor engagement, reduced trauma, and greater access to education and services. The current trajectory suggests sustained progress, though the data cutoff in August 2026 means future trends remain unverified.

What to watch: The government’s ability to maintain this rate through the next fiscal cycle. The historical context shows significant volatility, but the current decline indicates a shift toward stability. The report’s caveats note it covers data through August 31, 2026—so any reversal would require new evidence beyond this point.

Source: HumanProgress