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HEALTH · friction · impact 3/5 · 2026-10-30 · KFF

Stand-alone Medicare drug plan premiums projected to jump by half in 2027

A KFF analysis projects average stand-alone drug plan premiums rising from $34 to $51 a month, while CMS projects a $1 increase.

A KFF analysis projects that average monthly premiums for stand-alone Medicare drug plans will climb 50% in 2027, from $34 to $51. Deductibles are rising too: the average will be $643 in stand-alone plans (up from $540) and $489 in Medicare Advantage (up from $360). Most enrollees will face coinsurance instead of fixed copayments, which makes their costs harder to predict.

The increase would reach most people in these plans. About 10.4 million enrollees, 76% of those not receiving low-income subsidies, would pay more if they keep their current plan. That includes 4.1 million people now in zero-premium plans, since none will be offered in 2027. Medicare Advantage is steadier: drug coverage there averages $9 a month within the premium, up by under $2. Nearly 25 million people are in stand-alone plans and about 31 million get drug coverage through Advantage plans.

This matters for abundance because lower negotiated drug prices only help if people can afford the coverage that gets them the medicine. Premiums, deductibles and coinsurance are gates in front of the drug itself. KFF says CMS's early end in July of a three-year pilot that subsidized stand-alone plans in 2025 and 2026 could be driving the increases. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz has called that program an insurance industry bailout.

What to watch: open enrollment runs through Dec. 7, and switching can blunt the hit. One Virginia enrollee saw his premium go from $39.60 to $121.90, then moved to a $19.30 plan and estimates about $1,000 in savings. Caveats are real. CMS projects the national average rising only from $35 to $36, and KFF says CMS did not explain its method and may have assumed people will switch. KFF also says the pilot's end is only one possible cause. CMS did not immediately comment, and actual costs vary by medicine and plan. KFF is the parent nonprofit of the outlet that published the story.

Source: KFF Health News