Sub-Saharan Africa's off-grid solar capacity to surge 450% by 2035

Wood Mackenzie forecasts Sub-Saharan Africa's off-grid solar capacity will grow 450% by 2035, driven by mining, industrial demand, and population growth — but financing constraints threaten the projec

Wood Mackenzie projects Sub-Saharan Africa’s off-grid solar capacity will expand 450% by 2035, with Nigeria accounting for 35% of installations. Growth is fueled by distinct regional dynamics: mining operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia displace diesel use, while Ethiopia’s large population and industrial ambitions drive expansion. Kenya and Ghana focus on cost-optimized systems for households and small businesses, with pay-as-you-go services acting as the backbone of household access. Nigeria’s expansion is tied to commercial and industrial loads, and value stacking — adding appliance finance, insurance, and carbon credits — improves project economics.

This expansion targets energy poverty, directly advancing access to affordable lighting and cooking power for off-grid households. It also reduces diesel dependency, lowering risks of fuel scarcity and theft in rural areas. However, the forecast relies on overcoming significant barriers: borrowing costs exceeding 30% in price-sensitive markets, currency depreciation, and inconsistent rural electrification policies. Local-currency financing is critical to prevent project failures from dollar-denominated debt.

The path to this growth hinges on addressing financing constraints and policy stability. Without them, the 450% projection could stall — meaning millions of households remain without reliable, affordable energy. This signals a pivotal moment where market mechanisms may soon deliver energy security to energy-poor regions, but only if financial and policy barriers are resolved.

Source: pv magazine