How much does a lithium-ion battery cell cost per kWh?
Lithium-ion battery cell price · $/kWh · measured 1991–2024 · fitted live from 34 observations by the Many Minded cost-curve engine.
The last measured value is $78/kWh (2024, OWID (Way 2026; Ziegler & Trancik, BNEF, Avicenne)). Over the fitted window the series falls 15.8% a year (80% interval −20.8% to −10.4%) — a halving every 4.0 years (80%: 3.0–6.3). Carried forward on that fit, 2029: $33/kWh (80%: $19/kWh–$56/kWh).
Last measured 2024. The source has not published a newer figure we have verified, so the 2 years since are projections too, not observations.
the curve
what this series measures
global average lithium-ion CELL price — the pack price minus integration; a leading indicator.
what the fit says
| quantity | value | how it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| fitted rate | −15.8%/yr (80%: −20.8% to −10.4%) | Farmer–Lafond drift over the trailing window · n=11 points, 10 years |
| halving time | 4.0 years (80%: 3.0–6.3) | implied by the fitted drift |
| Wright's law | 28% cheaper per doubling of cumulative deployment | first-difference regression on 6,500 GWh produced deployed · BNEF-derived (estimate-grade knots) |
| deployment tempo | doubles every 2.3y (was 1.7y) → implies −13.2%/yr | learning holds while annual declines slow — each doubling of an ever-bigger base takes longer |
| Way scenario (scenario, not fit) | 2031: $38/kWh (80%: $23/kWh–$63/kWh) | 400 Monte-Carlo paths, deployment-conditional — growth 34%/yr decaying to 2%/yr (τ≈8y) |
| scale to the next halving | 2.1 doublings of deployment ≈ 5 years at today's pace | judged by scale, not calendar — scale survives regime noise better |
| curve check | decelerating (−15% → −13%/yr) | first half of the record versus the second, judged against the direction that helps this metric (falling) |
Not shown for this curve, because the machinery returns nothing: a regime break (none clears the sup-F threshold).
the projection, with its interval
Log cost as a random walk with drift: the forecast variance grows with horizon (τ + τ²/m), which is why these bands widen instead of staying parallel. The middle column is the least useful number on this page; the interval is the claim.
| year | central fit | 80% interval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $66/kWh | $54/kWh to $81/kWh | near horizon |
| 2026 | $55/kWh | $41/kWh to $75/kWh | near horizon |
| 2027 | $47/kWh | $32/kWh to $68/kWh | near horizon |
| 2028 | $39/kWh | $25/kWh to $62/kWh | the band is already wide here |
| 2029 | $33/kWh | $19/kWh to $56/kWh | the band is already wide here |
| 2030 | $28/kWh | $15/kWh to $51/kWh | the band is already wide here |
| 2031 | $23/kWh | $12/kWh to $46/kWh | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2032 | $20/kWh | $9/kWh to $41/kWh | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2033 | $17/kWh | $7/kWh to $37/kWh | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
Projected to 2033, the horizon the whole engine uses.
questions this page answers
How much does a lithium-ion battery cell cost per kWh?
$78/kWh as of 2024, the latest measured value in the series (OWID (Way 2026; Ziegler & Trancik, BNEF, Avicenne)). The fitted trend has it falling 15.8% a year, with an 80% interval of −20.8% to −10.4%.
How fast is the price of a battery cell falling?
−15.8% a year over the fitted window, an 80% interval of −20.8% to −10.4% — a halving every 4.0 years (80%: 3.0 to 6.3 years). Fitted from 11 observations spanning 10 years.
What will the price of a battery cell be in 2029?
The central fit says $33/kWh, inside an 80% interval of $19/kWh to $56/kWh. The interval is the forecast; the middle number is only its midpoint. Bands widen with horizon because shocks accumulate — a constant-width band would be overconfident.
Is the decline in the price of a battery cell accelerating or slowing?
Splitting the record in half, the fitted rate went from −15% to −13% a year — decelerating. Regime breaks, not window choice, are what dominate this method's errors — which is why every projection here carries an interval.
What is the learning rate for the price of a battery cell?
28% cheaper per doubling of cumulative deployment, fitted as a first-difference regression against 6,500 GWh produced (BNEF-derived (estimate-grade knots)). Deployment currently doubles every 2.3 years, against 1.7 years in the prior era, which implies −13.2% a year. Wright's law prices per doubling, not per year — as the installed base grows, the same learning rate yields smaller annual declines.
Where does this data come from?
OWID (Way 2026; Ziegler & Trancik, BNEF, Avicenne). 34 observations spanning 1991–2024. Curated benchmark history, extended by a weekly authoritative fetch and by news figures fact-checked against their source before they may touch a fit. Both the observation ledger and the fitting code are public, and the engine publishes its own calibration score and its misses.
the raw numbers
Every observation behind the fit, unrounded by us and unsmoothed. This table is here on purpose: graphs make people underestimate exponential change, and the raw series beside the curve is the one correction shown to work.
| year | $/kWh | change |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 | $9210/kWh | — |
| 1992 | $7388/kWh | −19.8% |
| 1993 | $5882/kWh | −20.4% |
| 1994 | $6714/kWh | +14.1% |
| 1995 | $6302/kWh | −6.1% |
| 1996 | $5308/kWh | −15.8% |
| 1997 | $4545/kWh | −14.4% |
| 1998 | $3657/kWh | −19.5% |
| 1999 | $2770/kWh | −24.3% |
| 2000 | $2691/kWh | −2.9% |
| 2001 | $1878/kWh | −30.2% |
| 2002 | $1346/kWh | −28.3% |
| 2003 | $1040/kWh | −22.7% |
| 2004 | $931/kWh | −10.5% |
| 2005 | $803/kWh | −13.8% |
| 2006 | $687/kWh | −14.4% |
| 2007 | $656/kWh | −4.6% |
| 2008 | $688/kWh | +4.9% |
| 2009 | $613/kWh | −10.9% |
| 2010 | $551/kWh | −10.1% |
| 2011 | $525/kWh | −4.7% |
| 2012 | $540/kWh | +2.9% |
| 2013 | $491/kWh | −9.0% |
| 2014 | $434/kWh | −11.5% |
| 2015 | $332/kWh | −23.6% |
| 2016 | $259/kWh | −22.0% |
| 2017 | $187/kWh | −27.8% |
| 2018 | $157/kWh | −16.0% |
| 2019 | $132/kWh | −15.9% |
| 2020 | $123/kWh | −6.8% |
| 2021 | $119/kWh | −3.3% |
| 2022 | $132/kWh | +10.9% |
| 2023 | $111/kWh | −15.9% |
| 2024 | $78/kWh | −29.7% |
where this comes from
- Source: OWID (Way 2026; Ziegler & Trancik, BNEF, Avicenne) — refetched weekly by the engine's benchmark cron.
- Basis: measured. Curated benchmark history, refreshed by the weekly authoritative fetch, extended by figures our daily editor extracts from the news — each of which is fact-checked against its source article before it may touch a fit.
- Observations: n=34, spanning 1991–2024. Ledger last updated 2026-09-07.
- Fit: the Farmer–Lafond stochastic model — log cost as a random walk with drift over a 10-year trailing window, Student-t tails, and (for series under 15 points) a volatility floor at their drift-volatility prior. The code is readable source; the observation ledger is public JSON.
- Reuse: this compiled series and the numbers on this page are published under CC BY 4.0 — take them, cite the page. The underlying source keeps its own terms (Our World in Data publishes under CC BY 4.0).
- Accuracy: the engine grades its own intervals in public — every feasible hindcast re-fitted on data as it stood, scored for whether the actual landed inside the 80% band. The calibration score is on the engine page, misses included.
the rest of the graph
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