What is the cheapest humanoid robot you can buy?
Cheapest humanoid robot, list price · $/unit · measured 2021–2026 · fitted live from 6 observations by the Many Minded cost-curve engine.
The last measured value is $4.9K (2026, vendor list prices (verified database — research/data-sources.md)). Over the fitted window the series falls 54.5% a year (80% interval −71.8% to −26.4%) — a halving every 0.9 years (80%: 0.5–2.3). Carried forward on that fit, 2028: $1K (80%: $168–$6.1K).
the curve
what this series measures
cheapest actually-purchasable bipedal humanoid per year — raw hardware LIST price, NOT capability-adjusted: the cheapest units walk and interact but do not yet work. Hardware crossed the $20K bar in 2024; capability has not — which is exactly why the robot-labor gate rides the judgment series above.
what the fit says
| quantity | value | how it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| fitted rate | −54.5%/yr (80%: −71.8% to −26.4%) | Farmer–Lafond drift over the trailing window · n=6 points, 5 years |
| halving time | 0.9 years (80%: 0.5–2.3) | implied by the fitted drift |
Not shown for this curve, because the machinery returns nothing: Wright's law (no cumulative-deployment series for this technology); the accelerating/decelerating check (needs ≥8 observations, this has 6); a regime break (needs ≥12 observations).
the projection, with its interval
Log cost as a random walk with drift: the forecast variance grows with horizon (τ + τ²/m), which is why these bands widen instead of staying parallel. The middle column is the least useful number on this page; the interval is the claim.
| year | central fit | 80% interval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $2.2K | $688 to $7.2K | near horizon |
| 2028 | $1K | $168 to $6.1K | near horizon |
| 2029 | below $490 | — | past the point where a number would be theater |
The table stops at $490 — a decade below the lowest value ever observed here. Past that, quoting a number would be theater rather than forecast.
questions this page answers
What is the cheapest humanoid robot you can buy?
$4.9K as of 2026, the latest measured value in the series (vendor list prices (verified database — research/data-sources.md)). The fitted trend has it falling 54.5% a year, with an 80% interval of −71.8% to −26.4%.
How fast is the price of the cheapest humanoid you can buy falling?
−54.5% a year over the fitted window, an 80% interval of −71.8% to −26.4% — a halving every 0.9 years (80%: 0.5 to 2.3 years). Fitted from 6 observations spanning 5 years.
What will the price of the cheapest humanoid you can buy be in 2028?
The central fit says $1K, inside an 80% interval of $168 to $6.1K. The interval is the forecast; the middle number is only its midpoint. Bands widen with horizon because shocks accumulate — a constant-width band would be overconfident.
Where does this data come from?
vendor list prices (verified database — research/data-sources.md). 6 observations spanning 2021–2026. Curated benchmark history, extended by a weekly authoritative fetch and by news figures fact-checked against their source before they may touch a fit. Both the observation ledger and the fitting code are public, and the engine publishes its own calibration score and its misses.
the raw numbers
Every observation behind the fit, unrounded by us and unsmoothed. This table is here on purpose: graphs make people underestimate exponential change, and the raw series beside the curve is the one correction shown to work.
| year | $/unit | change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $250K | — |
| 2022 | $250K | +0.0% |
| 2023 | $90K | −64.0% |
| 2024 | $16K | −82.2% |
| 2025 | $5.9K | −63.1% |
| 2026 | $4.9K | −16.9% |
where this comes from
- Source: vendor list prices (verified database — research/data-sources.md).
- Basis: measured. Curated benchmark history, maintained by hand against the source, extended by figures our daily editor extracts from the news — each of which is fact-checked against its source article before it may touch a fit.
- Observations: n=6, spanning 2021–2026. Ledger last updated 2026-09-07.
- Fit: the Farmer–Lafond stochastic model — log cost as a random walk with drift over a 10-year trailing window, Student-t tails, and (for series under 15 points) a volatility floor at their drift-volatility prior. The code is readable source; the observation ledger is public JSON.
- Reuse: this compiled series and the numbers on this page are published under CC BY 4.0 — take them, cite the page. The underlying source keeps its own terms.
- Accuracy: the engine grades its own intervals in public — every feasible hindcast re-fitted on data as it stood, scored for whether the actual landed inside the 80% band. The calibration score is on the engine page, misses included.
the rest of the graph
Other GOODS curves:
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