How much wheat does a hectare produce?
Global wheat yield, tonnes per hectare · t/ha · measured 1961–2024 · fitted live from 64 observations by the Many Minded cost-curve engine.
The last measured value is 3.64 t/ha (2024, OWID / FAO). Over the fitted window the series rises 0.9% a year (80% interval −0.1% to +2.0%) — and no doubling time is honest here: that interval spans zero, so this window does not resolve the direction. Carried forward on that fit, 2029: 3.81 t/ha (80%: 3.49 t/ha–4.16 t/ha).
Last measured 2024. The source has not published a newer figure we have verified, so the 2 years since are projections too, not observations.
the curve
what this series measures
global average wheat yield, tonnes per hectare — the food-productivity climb.
what the fit says
| quantity | value | how it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| fitted rate | +0.9%/yr (80%: −0.1% to +2.0%) | Farmer–Lafond drift over the trailing window · n=11 points, 10 years |
| tempo | unresolved | the 80% interval on the rate spans zero at this window |
| curve check | decelerating (3% → 1%/yr) | first half of the record versus the second, judged against the direction that helps this metric (rising) |
| regime break | ~1991 (3% → 1%/yr, F=111.1) | Chow-style best single breakpoint, kept only above a conservative sup-F threshold |
Not shown for this curve, because the machinery returns nothing: Wright's law (no cumulative-deployment series for this technology).
the projection, with its interval
Log cost as a random walk with drift: the forecast variance grows with horizon (τ + τ²/m), which is why these bands widen instead of staying parallel. The middle column is the least useful number on this page; the interval is the claim.
| year | central fit | 80% interval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.67 t/ha | 3.55 t/ha to 3.80 t/ha | near horizon |
| 2026 | 3.71 t/ha | 3.53 t/ha to 3.89 t/ha | near horizon |
| 2027 | 3.74 t/ha | 3.51 t/ha to 3.98 t/ha | near horizon |
| 2028 | 3.77 t/ha | 3.50 t/ha to 4.07 t/ha | the band is already wide here |
| 2029 | 3.81 t/ha | 3.49 t/ha to 4.16 t/ha | the band is already wide here |
| 2030 | 3.85 t/ha | 3.48 t/ha to 4.24 t/ha | the band is already wide here |
| 2031 | 3.88 t/ha | 3.48 t/ha to 4.33 t/ha | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2032 | 3.92 t/ha | 3.47 t/ha to 4.42 t/ha | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2033 | 3.95 t/ha | 3.47 t/ha to 4.51 t/ha | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
Projected to 2033, the horizon the whole engine uses.
questions this page answers
How much wheat does a hectare produce?
3.64 t/ha as of 2024, the latest measured value in the series (OWID / FAO). The fitted trend has it rising 0.9% a year, with an 80% interval of −0.1% to +2.0%.
How fast is global wheat yield rising?
The fitted rate is +0.9% a year, but the 80% interval (−0.1% to +2.0%) spans zero — at this window the direction itself is not resolved, so no doubling or halving time is honest.
What will global wheat yield be in 2029?
The central fit says 3.81 t/ha, inside an 80% interval of 3.49 t/ha to 4.16 t/ha. The interval is the forecast; the middle number is only its midpoint. Bands widen with horizon because shocks accumulate — a constant-width band would be overconfident.
Is the rise in global wheat yield accelerating or slowing?
Splitting the record in half, the fitted rate went from 3% to 1% a year — decelerating. A Chow-style test finds a regime break around 1991 (3% → 1% a year, F=111.1). Regime breaks, not window choice, are what dominate this method's errors — which is why every projection here carries an interval.
Where does this data come from?
OWID / FAO. 64 observations spanning 1961–2024. Curated benchmark history, extended by a weekly authoritative fetch and by news figures fact-checked against their source before they may touch a fit. Both the observation ledger and the fitting code are public, and the engine publishes its own calibration score and its misses.
the raw numbers
Every observation behind the fit, unrounded by us and unsmoothed. This table is here on purpose: graphs make people underestimate exponential change, and the raw series beside the curve is the one correction shown to work.
| year | t/ha | change |
|---|---|---|
| 1961 | 1.09 t/ha | — |
| 1962 | 1.21 t/ha | +10.7% |
| 1963 | 1.13 t/ha | −6.1% |
| 1964 | 1.24 t/ha | +9.6% |
| 1965 | 1.22 t/ha | −2.1% |
| 1966 | 1.41 t/ha | +15.9% |
| 1967 | 1.34 t/ha | −4.9% |
| 1968 | 1.45 t/ha | +8.5% |
| 1969 | 1.42 t/ha | −2.5% |
| 1970 | 1.49 t/ha | +5.4% |
| 1971 | 1.63 t/ha | +8.8% |
| 1972 | 1.60 t/ha | −1.2% |
| 1973 | 1.68 t/ha | +4.9% |
| 1974 | 1.62 t/ha | −4.0% |
| 1975 | 1.57 t/ha | −2.8% |
| 1976 | 1.79 t/ha | +14.1% |
| 1977 | 1.67 t/ha | −6.6% |
| 1978 | 1.93 t/ha | +15.6% |
| 1979 | 1.85 t/ha | −4.2% |
| 1980 | 1.85 t/ha | +0.2% |
| 1981 | 1.88 t/ha | +1.3% |
| 1982 | 2.00 t/ha | +6.3% |
| 1983 | 2.13 t/ha | +6.4% |
| 1984 | 2.22 t/ha | +4.4% |
| 1985 | 2.17 t/ha | −2.2% |
| 1986 | 2.32 t/ha | +6.9% |
| 1987 | 2.29 t/ha | −1.3% |
| 1988 | 2.29 t/ha | +0.1% |
| 1989 | 2.37 t/ha | +3.5% |
| 1990 | 2.56 t/ha | +8.0% |
| 1991 | 2.45 t/ha | −4.3% |
| 1992 | 2.54 t/ha | +3.8% |
| 1993 | 2.54 t/ha | −0.3% |
| 1994 | 2.45 t/ha | −3.4% |
| 1995 | 2.51 t/ha | +2.4% |
| 1996 | 2.58 t/ha | +2.6% |
| 1997 | 2.71 t/ha | +5.3% |
| 1998 | 2.70 t/ha | −0.7% |
| 1999 | 2.75 t/ha | +2.2% |
| 2000 | 2.72 t/ha | −1.2% |
| 2001 | 2.75 t/ha | +1.1% |
| 2002 | 2.69 t/ha | −2.2% |
| 2003 | 2.72 t/ha | +1.1% |
| 2004 | 2.92 t/ha | +7.4% |
| 2005 | 2.85 t/ha | −2.3% |
| 2006 | 2.83 t/ha | −0.7% |
| 2007 | 2.82 t/ha | −0.4% |
| 2008 | 3.07 t/ha | +8.7% |
| 2009 | 3.05 t/ha | −0.7% |
| 2010 | 3.02 t/ha | −1.0% |
| 2011 | 3.16 t/ha | +4.8% |
| 2012 | 3.06 t/ha | −3.0% |
| 2013 | 3.27 t/ha | +6.6% |
| 2014 | 3.31 t/ha | +1.5% |
| 2015 | 3.34 t/ha | +0.8% |
| 2016 | 3.45 t/ha | +3.4% |
| 2017 | 3.52 t/ha | +2.0% |
| 2018 | 3.44 t/ha | −2.4% |
| 2019 | 3.56 t/ha | +3.5% |
| 2020 | 3.53 t/ha | −0.8% |
| 2021 | 3.57 t/ha | +1.2% |
| 2022 | 3.71 t/ha | +4.0% |
| 2023 | 3.63 t/ha | −2.2% |
| 2024 | 3.64 t/ha | +0.1% |
where this comes from
- Source: OWID / FAO — refetched weekly by the engine's benchmark cron.
- Basis: measured. Curated benchmark history, refreshed by the weekly authoritative fetch, extended by figures our daily editor extracts from the news — each of which is fact-checked against its source article before it may touch a fit.
- Observations: n=64, spanning 1961–2024. Ledger last updated 2026-09-07.
- Fit: the Farmer–Lafond stochastic model — log cost as a random walk with drift over a 10-year trailing window, Student-t tails, and (for series under 15 points) a volatility floor at their drift-volatility prior. The code is readable source; the observation ledger is public JSON.
- Reuse: this compiled series and the numbers on this page are published under CC BY 4.0 — take them, cite the page. The underlying source keeps its own terms (Our World in Data publishes under CC BY 4.0).
- Accuracy: the engine grades its own intervals in public — every feasible hindcast re-fitted on data as it stood, scored for whether the actual landed inside the 80% band. The calibration score is on the engine page, misses included.
the rest of the graph
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