How much does a lithium-ion battery pack cost per kWh?
Lithium-ion battery pack price · $/kWh · measured 2013–2026 · fitted live from 14 observations by the Many Minded cost-curve engine.
The last measured value is $105/kWh (2026, BloombergNEF annual survey). Over the fitted window the series falls 9.8% a year (80% interval −15.0% to −4.3%) — a halving every 6.7 years (80%: 4.3–15.8). Carried forward on that fit, 2031: $63/kWh (80%: $37/kWh–$105/kWh).
the curve
what this series measures
global average lithium-ion PACK price (BNEF-style) — not cell-only, not installed-system.
the gate — what this threshold unlocks
Open since 2023 — measured, not forecast. The threshold was crossed and has stayed crossed.
what the fit says
| quantity | value | how it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| fitted rate | −9.8%/yr (80%: −15.0% to −4.3%) | Farmer–Lafond drift over the trailing window · n=11 points, 10 years |
| halving time | 6.7 years (80%: 4.3–15.8) | implied by the fitted drift |
| Wright's law | 24% cheaper per doubling of cumulative deployment | first-difference regression on 6,500 GWh produced deployed · BNEF-derived (estimate-grade knots) |
| deployment tempo | doubles every 2.3y (was 1.7y) → implies −11.1%/yr | learning holds while annual declines slow — each doubling of an ever-bigger base takes longer |
| Way scenario (scenario, not fit) | 2033: $57/kWh (80%: $28/kWh–$124/kWh) | 400 Monte-Carlo paths, deployment-conditional — growth 34%/yr decaying to 2%/yr (τ≈8y) |
| scale to the next halving | 2.5 doublings of deployment ≈ 6 years at today's pace | judged by scale, not calendar — scale survives regime noise better |
| curve check | decelerating (−23% → −4%/yr) | first half of the record versus the second, judged against the direction that helps this metric (falling) |
| regime break | ~2018 (−27% → −6%/yr, F=48.6) | Chow-style best single breakpoint, kept only above a conservative sup-F threshold |
the projection, with its interval
Log cost as a random walk with drift: the forecast variance grows with horizon (τ + τ²/m), which is why these bands widen instead of staying parallel. The middle column is the least useful number on this page; the interval is the claim.
| year | central fit | 80% interval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $95/kWh | $78/kWh to $115/kWh | near horizon |
| 2028 | $85/kWh | $64/kWh to $114/kWh | near horizon |
| 2029 | $77/kWh | $53/kWh to $112/kWh | near horizon |
| 2030 | $69/kWh | $45/kWh to $108/kWh | the band is already wide here |
| 2031 | $63/kWh | $37/kWh to $105/kWh | the band is already wide here |
| 2032 | $56/kWh | $32/kWh to $101/kWh | the band is already wide here |
| 2033 | $51/kWh | $27/kWh to $97/kWh | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
Projected to 2033, the horizon the whole engine uses.
questions this page answers
How much does a lithium-ion battery pack cost per kWh?
$105/kWh as of 2026, the latest measured value in the series (BloombergNEF annual survey). The fitted trend has it falling 9.8% a year, with an 80% interval of −15.0% to −4.3%.
How fast is the price of a battery pack falling?
−9.8% a year over the fitted window, an 80% interval of −15.0% to −4.3% — a halving every 6.7 years (80%: 4.3 to 15.8 years). Fitted from 11 observations spanning 10 years.
What will the price of a battery pack be in 2031?
The central fit says $63/kWh, inside an 80% interval of $37/kWh to $105/kWh. The interval is the forecast; the middle number is only its midpoint. Bands widen with horizon because shocks accumulate — a constant-width band would be overconfident.
Has the price of a battery pack reached ≤ $150/kWh pack?
Yes — measured, since 2023. Crossing it is what the engine calls "batteries cheap enough for night + winter", and it fires: the hundred. That is an observation, not a forecast.
Is the decline in the price of a battery pack accelerating or slowing?
Splitting the record in half, the fitted rate went from −23% to −4% a year — decelerating. A Chow-style test finds a regime break around 2018 (−27% → −6% a year, F=48.6). Regime breaks, not window choice, are what dominate this method's errors — which is why every projection here carries an interval.
What is the learning rate for the price of a battery pack?
24% cheaper per doubling of cumulative deployment, fitted as a first-difference regression against 6,500 GWh produced (BNEF-derived (estimate-grade knots)). Deployment currently doubles every 2.3 years, against 1.7 years in the prior era, which implies −11.1% a year. Wright's law prices per doubling, not per year — as the installed base grows, the same learning rate yields smaller annual declines.
Where does this data come from?
BloombergNEF annual survey. 14 observations spanning 2013–2026. Curated benchmark history, extended by a weekly authoritative fetch and by news figures fact-checked against their source before they may touch a fit. Both the observation ledger and the fitting code are public, and the engine publishes its own calibration score and its misses.
the raw numbers
Every observation behind the fit, unrounded by us and unsmoothed. This table is here on purpose: graphs make people underestimate exponential change, and the raw series beside the curve is the one correction shown to work.
| year | $/kWh | change |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $732/kWh | — |
| 2014 | $607/kWh | −17.1% |
| 2015 | $384/kWh | −36.7% |
| 2016 | $295/kWh | −23.2% |
| 2017 | $214/kWh | −27.5% |
| 2018 | $181/kWh | −15.4% |
| 2019 | $156/kWh | −13.8% |
| 2020 | $137/kWh | −12.2% |
| 2021 | $132/kWh | −3.6% |
| 2022 | $161/kWh | +22.0% |
| 2023 | $139/kWh | −13.7% |
| 2024 | $115/kWh | −17.3% |
| 2025 | $108/kWh | −6.1% |
| 2026 | $105/kWh | −2.8% |
where this comes from
- Source: BloombergNEF annual survey.
- Basis: measured. Curated benchmark history, maintained by hand against the source, extended by figures our daily editor extracts from the news — each of which is fact-checked against its source article before it may touch a fit.
- Observations: n=14, spanning 2013–2026. Ledger last updated 2026-09-07.
- Fit: the Farmer–Lafond stochastic model — log cost as a random walk with drift over a 10-year trailing window, Student-t tails, and (for series under 15 points) a volatility floor at their drift-volatility prior. The code is readable source; the observation ledger is public JSON.
- Reuse: this compiled series and the numbers on this page are published under CC BY 4.0 — take them, cite the page. The underlying source keeps its own terms.
- Accuracy: the engine grades its own intervals in public — every feasible hindcast re-fitted on data as it stood, scored for whether the actual landed inside the 80% band. The calibration score is on the engine page, misses included.
the rest of the graph
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