How much does the world spend on healthcare per person?
Healthcare expenditure per capita · $/person/yr · measured 2000–2023 · fitted live from 24 observations by the Many Minded cost-curve engine.
The last measured value is $1891 (2023, OWID / WHO). Over the fitted window the series rises 5.0% a year (80% interval +4.2% to +5.9%) — a doubling every 14.1 years (80%: 12.1–16.9). Carried forward on that fit, 2028: $2418 (80%: $2253–$2594).
Last measured 2023. The source has not published a newer figure we have verified, so the 3 years since are projections too, not observations.
the curve
what this series measures
world per-capita healthcare expenditure — the care COUNTER-curve: the one great cost still rising; the care gate stays editorial until this line bends.
what the fit says
| quantity | value | how it is computed |
|---|---|---|
| fitted rate | +5.0%/yr (80%: +4.2% to +5.9%) | Farmer–Lafond drift over the trailing window · n=11 points, 10 years |
| doubling time | 14.1 years (80%: 12.1–16.9) | implied by the fitted drift |
| curve check | steady (6% → 5%/yr) | first half of the record versus the second, judged against the direction that helps this metric (falling) |
Not shown for this curve, because the machinery returns nothing: Wright's law (no cumulative-deployment series for this technology); a regime break (none clears the sup-F threshold).
the projection, with its interval
Log cost as a random walk with drift: the forecast variance grows with horizon (τ + τ²/m), which is why these bands widen instead of staying parallel. The middle column is the least useful number on this page; the interval is the claim.
| year | central fit | 80% interval | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $1986 | $1933 to $2041 | near horizon |
| 2025 | $2086 | $2005 to $2171 | near horizon |
| 2026 | $2191 | $2083 to $2306 | near horizon |
| 2027 | $2302 | $2165 to $2446 | the band is already wide here |
| 2028 | $2418 | $2253 to $2594 | the band is already wide here |
| 2029 | $2539 | $2344 to $2750 | the band is already wide here |
| 2030 | $2667 | $2440 to $2915 | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2031 | $2801 | $2540 to $3089 | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2032 | $2942 | $2645 to $3273 | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
| 2033 | $3091 | $2754 to $3468 | far horizon — read the interval, not the middle |
Projected to 2033, the horizon the whole engine uses.
questions this page answers
How much does the world spend on healthcare per person?
$1891 as of 2023, the latest measured value in the series (OWID / WHO). The fitted trend has it rising 5.0% a year, with an 80% interval of +4.2% to +5.9%.
How fast is healthcare spending per person rising?
+5.0% a year over the fitted window, an 80% interval of +4.2% to +5.9% — a doubling every 14.1 years (80%: 12.1 to 16.9 years). Fitted from 11 observations spanning 10 years.
What will healthcare spending per person be in 2028?
The central fit says $2418, inside an 80% interval of $2253 to $2594. The interval is the forecast; the middle number is only its midpoint. Bands widen with horizon because shocks accumulate — a constant-width band would be overconfident.
Is the rise in healthcare spending per person accelerating or slowing?
Splitting the record in half, the fitted rate went from 6% to 5% a year — steady. Regime breaks, not window choice, are what dominate this method's errors — which is why every projection here carries an interval.
Where does this data come from?
OWID / WHO. 24 observations spanning 2000–2023. Curated benchmark history, extended by a weekly authoritative fetch and by news figures fact-checked against their source before they may touch a fit. Both the observation ledger and the fitting code are public, and the engine publishes its own calibration score and its misses.
the raw numbers
Every observation behind the fit, unrounded by us and unsmoothed. This table is here on purpose: graphs make people underestimate exponential change, and the raw series beside the curve is the one correction shown to work.
| year | $/person/yr | change |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $593 | — |
| 2001 | $633 | +6.8% |
| 2002 | $671 | +6.1% |
| 2003 | $711 | +5.9% |
| 2004 | $749 | +5.4% |
| 2005 | $792 | +5.8% |
| 2006 | $848 | +7.1% |
| 2007 | $896 | +5.7% |
| 2008 | $945 | +5.4% |
| 2009 | $1002 | +6.0% |
| 2010 | $1025 | +2.3% |
| 2011 | $1069 | +4.3% |
| 2012 | $1112 | +4.0% |
| 2013 | $1157 | +4.0% |
| 2014 | $1199 | +3.6% |
| 2015 | $1241 | +3.5% |
| 2016 | $1282 | +3.3% |
| 2017 | $1320 | +3.0% |
| 2018 | $1372 | +3.9% |
| 2019 | $1444 | +5.2% |
| 2020 | $1566 | +8.4% |
| 2021 | $1683 | +7.5% |
| 2022 | $1803 | +7.1% |
| 2023 | $1891 | +4.9% |
where this comes from
- Source: OWID / WHO — refetched weekly by the engine's benchmark cron.
- Basis: measured. Curated benchmark history, refreshed by the weekly authoritative fetch, extended by figures our daily editor extracts from the news — each of which is fact-checked against its source article before it may touch a fit.
- Observations: n=24, spanning 2000–2023. Ledger last updated 2026-09-07.
- Fit: the Farmer–Lafond stochastic model — log cost as a random walk with drift over a 10-year trailing window, Student-t tails, and (for series under 15 points) a volatility floor at their drift-volatility prior. The code is readable source; the observation ledger is public JSON.
- Reuse: this compiled series and the numbers on this page are published under CC BY 4.0 — take them, cite the page. The underlying source keeps its own terms (Our World in Data publishes under CC BY 4.0).
- Accuracy: the engine grades its own intervals in public — every feasible hindcast re-fitted on data as it stood, scored for whether the actual landed inside the 80% band. The calibration score is on the engine page, misses included.
the rest of the graph
Recent briefs from CARE, the daily record of what actually moved:
- Dementia Care App Targets Caregiver Burnout 2026-09-06UC Davis Health developed an app to reduce burnout in dementia care, improving long-term well-being for millions of caregivers.
- Regional Businesses Adopt AI Without Mass Layoffs 2026-09-05Federal Reserve surveys show regional firms rapidly adopted AI while avoiding widespread job cuts.
- China launches robot guide dog for visually impaired 2026-09-04Zhiyuan Research Institute debuts Xiaoyuan, a wheeled and legged robot guide dog for visually impaired people
- Care Tech Adoption for Seniors: Current State Without Proven Gains 2026-09-02This signal describes tech companies using digital tools for senior care but lacks evidence of cost reductions or expanded access.
- Home Care Tech Adoption Expands Elderly Support 2026-08-31Home care agencies adopting new technology improves elderly care access and affordability
- Robots easing Japan’s elder care worker shortage 2026-08-29Japan’s aging population faces elder care labor shortages. Robotics now offer scalable solutions to offset human worker gaps.
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